Trend detection in hydro-meteorological time series: Visual seasonal trend profile, a case study from multiple regions in Türkiye
Pinar Spor
article (Uluslararası, Hakemli) | Yazar(lar): Pinar Spor | Yıl: 2026 | Dergi/Kurum: PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH | İndeks: WOS.SCI | DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104618 | Anahtar Kelimeler: Hydrometeorology, Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope estimation, Time series, Visual seasonal trend Profile — Özet: This study introduces
This study introduces a new methodology called the Visual Seasonal Trend Profile (VSTP), developed to assess trends in hydro-meteorological time series and the stability of these trends both visually and numerically. Unlike traditional statistical tests (Mann-Kendall, Sen's Slope Estimation), VSTP uses parameters such as directional arrow diagrams, with two quantitative metrics Trend Score (TS) and Stability Ratio (SR) to provide an intuitive representation of seasonal trend dynamics. Although longer meteorological records were available, the 1985-2024 period was selected to enhance the readability and interpretability of the graphical trend analyses and to allow clearer comparisons among provinces. The findings show that temperatures across T & uuml;rkiye have been on a clear and steady upward trend, especially since the 2000s, while precipitation has exhibited high variability and low stability on a regional basis. For temperature TS values ranged from 0.04 to 0.16, with the highest values observed at S & cedil;anl & imath;urfa and Aksaray stations. Stability Ratio (SR) values ranged from 0.25 to 0.37, indicating that temperatures increased by approximately 1.5-2.5 degrees C. The VSTP method is recommended as a complementary tool in climate studies due to its ability to easily detect seasonal transitions and short-term fluctuations, even in complex data sets.