Spatial inequality and income dynamics across Turkish provinces
Ugur Ursavas, Yilin Chen, Sergio J. Rey
article (Uluslararası, Hakemli) | Yazar(lar): Ugur Ursavas, Yilin Chen, Sergio J. Rey | Yıl: 2026 | Dergi/Kurum: ANNALS OF REGIONAL SCIENCE | İndeks: WOS.SSCI | DOI: 10.1007/s00168-026-01538-y | Anahtar Kelimeler: Spatial inequality, Convergence, T & uuml;rkiye, R11, R12 — Özet: Income disparities across Turkish provin
Income disparities across Turkish provinces have persisted for decades despite sustained regional policy efforts. This paper analyzes the spatial structure and dynamics of regional income inequality in T & uuml;rkiye from 2004 to 2023 using an integrated framework combining inequality decomposition, spatial econometrics, and distributional dynamics. Using provincial GDP per capita data for 81 provinces nested into 11 regions, we show that income inequality is dominated by between-region disparities and that observed spatial polarization is significantly stronger than would arise under a spatially random income distribution. Evidence from classical and spatial beta -convergence models indicates absolute convergence across provinces, but at a slow pace, implying long-lived regional disparities, with spatial error models highlighting the role of unobserved spatially structured factors. Classical and spatial Markov chain analyses reveal strong persistence in provincial income rankings and spatially conditioned mobility traps, whereby transition probabilities depend critically on neighboring income levels. Overall, the results point to a rigid, threshold-dependent spatial hierarchy and underscore the need for geographically coordinated, cluster-based regional development policies that explicitly account for spatial dependence.