Anomaly levels of factors affecting the estimated price of a second-hand ship
Gulden Oner, Ersin Acikgoz, Burak Goksu
article (Uluslararası, Hakemli) | Yazar(lar): Gulden Oner, Ersin Acikgoz, Burak Goksu | Yıl: 2025 | Dergi/Kurum: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SHIPPING AND TRANSPORT LOGISTICS | İndeks: WOS.SSCI | DOI: 10.1504/ijstl.2025.148485 | Anahtar Kelimeler: artificial neural network, ANN, Panamax bulk carriers, price anomalies, regr
This is a study to determine the variables, and their effects related to second-hand ship prices and predict the prices of ships with the anomalies and make suggestions to their reasons on information acquired from the sales of 1,283 pre-owned Panamax-class vessels between 2010 and 2022. The regression model was used as a pre-selection method to specify the variables associated with the prices of second-hand ships, and the artificial neural networks model was used to predict the prices of these ships and to determine the anomalies related to the price estimation. As a result, there is a significant relationship between the age of the ships, tonnage, LIBOR interest rates, crude oil prices, freight rates and second-hand prices. In ships older than 20 years and between 65,000-75,000 DWT, very low and high freight rates, low crude oil prices and high interest rates, anomaly prices are high.